In recent weeks, several clients have called with the same question: “I’ve heard the third year of a presidency is the best time to be in the stock market. Should we abandon our plan and go fully aggressive in 2027?” My answer usually starts with a question of my own: Has your investment goal changed?
Proverbs 16:8 offers a timeless guide: “Better a little with righteousness than much gain with injustice.” Solomon cautions us against get-rich-quick thinking that pulls us away from the values we’ve already established.
The data behind the question is real. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 17.2% return in the third year of a presidential term, the strongest year in the four-year cycle, according to an Open Bell Daily article published October 17, 2026. But averages hide wide swings, and history doesn’t promise the future. Upending a sound strategy to chase one year’s pattern introduces significant timing risk.
Proverbs 30:15–16 captures the pull of that temptation: “There are three things that are never satisfied, four that never say, ‘Enough!’: the grave, the barren womb, land, which is never satisfied with water, and fire, which never says, ‘Enough!’” Picture parched ground that drinks the rain and immediately thirsts for more. Chasing returns works the same way. There is always another headline promising the next great year.
When we invest what God has entrusted to us, every dollar should have a purpose and a strategy. A diversified, long-term portfolio of companies you’re proud to own will serve you better than a bet on a historical pattern. Instead of chasing third-year returns, consider these steps:
Rebalance, don’t restructure. If a rally pushes your stock allocation beyond your target, trim winners and rebalance into fixed income. That is the opposite of chasing.
Watch the economy, not the calendar. Inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and global events outweigh any cycle trend. Expect volatility as campaigns heat up, and let your plan set your course.
Measure against your plan, not the index. Your portfolio isn’t built to mirror the market. When headlines report gains or losses, your results may differ, better or worse, based on your diversification.
Make your giving strategic. If markets rise, consider taking your required minimum distribution while prices are elevated. If you’re 70½ or older and not yet giving through qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) from your IRA, this may be the year to start.
Parched ground is never satisfied, and neither is a portfolio chasing every headline. Faithful stewardship isn’t about catching the best year. It’s about following a plan built for your purpose. Before the 2027 headlines start, take an hour to review your allocation, your giving strategy, and whether you own companies that reflect your convictions. With more than 20 years of experience guiding faith-driven families, our team can help you build that plan and stay the course. Call 855.378.1806 to schedule your review.
Michael Wallin – With more than three decades in financial services, Michael Wallin and the team at Optivise Advisory Services help families align their finances with their faith. For guidance on debt management or building a plan, call 855.378.1806.
Investment advisory services are offered through Optivise Advisory Services, LLC (Optivise), a SEC-registered investment advisor.
